Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Robert Morris @ Akron RMU @ AKR

ROBERT MORRIS

ROBERT MORRISRMU

2-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium
View Odds Details →

AKRON

AKRONAKR

1-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Bryson Costa
KEY GAME

Bryson Costa

#33 | Place kicker
@
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
Player
Bryson Costa None-None
Joseph Castle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ROBERT MORRIS
9%
📊
AKRON
91%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (RMU)
ROBERT MORRIS 7% Book Odds: +1400
AKRON 97% Book Odds: -3226
Book Implied: 6.70% / 97%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.4
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 (Over)
Over 45.5 75%
Under 45.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.0
ROBERT MORRIS
Book Spread
+26.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Robert Morris)
Robert MorrisRMU (+26.5) 0 AkronAKR (-26.5)
Robert Morris Colonials (+26.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Robert Morris Cover

96.3%

Akron Cover

3.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around RMU +25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RMU)

RMU By 1-6 points

2.2%

RMU By 7-13 points

0.9%

AKR By 1-6 points

5.3%

AKR By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
ROBERT MORRIS
Book Implied: 9.50
41.2
AKRON
Book Implied: 36
Simulated Score
14
ROBERT MORRIS
Book Implied: 9.50
33
AKRON
Book Implied: 36
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron Win
91% Win Prob
B
Sim Akron Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Robert Morris (+26.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +25.0
D
Sim Robert Morris (+26.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +19.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.4
A
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 RMU @ AKR 10 - 45
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +114.6% more
Akron: 22.3 vs Robert Morris: 10.4
Total Yards (L5) +83.0% more
Akron: 365.1 vs Robert Morris: 199.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +74.0% more
Akron: 142.7 vs Robert Morris: 82.0
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Akron: 1.8 vs Robert Morris: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RMU Score 16.2 10
AKR Score 41.2 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 10.4 28.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 142.7 / 82.0 241.0 / 14.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 365.1 / 199.5 523.0 / 194.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1800 / -5000 → +1400 / -3226 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +27.5 / -27.5 → +26.5 / -26.5 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
97%MONEY3%
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5 → 45.5 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RMU
--
AKR Advantage
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: -13.1 ATS +/-: -5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RMU
--
AKR Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -13.1 ATS +/-: -5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RMU
--
AKR
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
RMU
AKR
RMU
ML
89% 8-1
100% 2-0
67% 6-3
100% 2-0
ATS
67% 6-3
0% 0-2
44% 4-5
50% 1-1
TTL
88% 7-1-1
100% 2-0
62% 5-3-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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