Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ UAB ULM @ UAB

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

0-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

1-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Jonah Delange None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
38%
📊
UAB
62%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (ULM)
UL MONROE 25% Book Odds: +304
UAB 79% Book Odds: -374
Book Implied: 24.80% / 78.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
54.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 54.0 49%
Under 54.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
UL MONROE
Book Spread
+9
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (UL Monroe)
UL MonroeULM (+9) 0 UABUAB (-9)
UL Monroe Warhawks (+9) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

65.3%

UAB Cover

34.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ULM +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

ULM By 1-6 points

13.8%

ULM By 7-13 points

10.8%

UAB By 1-6 points

16.8%

UAB By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 22.50
29.5
UAB
Book Implied: 31.50
Simulated Score
19
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 22.50
29
UAB
Book Implied: 31.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UAB Win
62% Win Prob
D
Sim UAB Win
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UL Monroe (+9) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
C
Sim UAB (-9) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.5
D
Sim u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ULM @ UAB 20 - 26
Sep 7, 2024 UAB @ ULM 6 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.0% more
UAB: 1.7 vs UL Monroe: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +26.8% more
UAB: 22.9 vs UL Monroe: 18.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
UAB: 0.5 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
UAB: 402.1 vs UL Monroe: 328.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 24.0 20
UAB Score 29.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 18.0 23.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 178.7 / 148.3 266.0 / 201.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 402.1 / 328.2 381.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +311 / -415 → +304 / -374 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +9 / -9 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 54 ↓
19%TICKETS81%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
UAB Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
UAB Advantage
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
UAB
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
ULM
UAB
ULM
ML
71% 5-2
80% 4-1
100% 7-0
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 3-3-1
20% 1-4
83% 5-1-1
20% 1-4
TTL
43% 3-4
80% 4-1
57% 4-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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