Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ UAB ULM @ UAB

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

0-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

1-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Jonah Delange None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
38%
📊
UAB
62%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (ULM)
UL MONROE 25% Book Odds: +304
UAB 79% Book Odds: -374
Book Implied: 24.80% / 78.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
54.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 54.0 49%
Under 54.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
UL MONROE
Book Spread
+9
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (UL Monroe)
UL MonroeULM (+9) 0 UABUAB (-9)
UL Monroe Warhawks (+9) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

65.3%

UAB Cover

34.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ULM +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

ULM By 1-6 points

13.8%

ULM By 7-13 points

10.8%

UAB By 1-6 points

16.8%

UAB By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 22.50
29.5
UAB
Book Implied: 31.50
Simulated Score
19
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 22.50
29
UAB
Book Implied: 31.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UAB Win
62% Win Prob
D
Sim UAB Win
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UL Monroe (+9) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
C
Sim UAB (-9) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.5
D
Sim u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ULM @ UAB 20 - 26
Sep 7, 2024 UAB @ ULM 6 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.0% more
UAB: 1.7 vs UL Monroe: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +26.8% more
UAB: 22.9 vs UL Monroe: 18.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
UAB: 0.5 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
UAB: 402.1 vs UL Monroe: 328.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 24.0 20
UAB Score 29.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 18.0 23.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 178.7 / 148.3 266.0 / 201.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 402.1 / 328.2 381.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +311 / -415 → +304 / -374 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +9 / -9 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 54 ↓
19%TICKETS81%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -16.8 ATS +/-: -6.3
UAB Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -16.8 ATS +/-: -6.3
UAB Advantage
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +3.0
UAB
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
ULM
UAB
ULM
ML
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
100% 8-0
50% 4-4
ATS
57% 4-3-1
25% 2-6
86% 6-1-1
25% 2-6
TTL
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Sierra Canyon and Bishop Amat Set for Mission League Showdown wi…
si 5 days, 7 hours ago
Auburn's Alex Golesh: From Moscow to SEC Sidelines, ESPN's GameD…
yahoo 1 week, 4 days ago
Memphis Rallies Past UAB to Reclaim The Bones Trophy
yahoo 3 weeks, 3 days ago
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 3 weeks, 6 days ago
UAB Rallies Past Navy 24-20 Behind McReynolds' Late 48-Yard Touc…
abcnews 1 month, 1 week ago