Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTSA @ Texas St UTSA @ TXST

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

2-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

0-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Tom Flintoff

#92 | Punter
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Tom Flintoff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
29%
📊
TEXAS ST
71%
▲ Edge: +14.60% (TXST)
UTSA 47% Book Odds: +114
TEXAS ST 56% Book Odds: -129
Book Implied: 46.70% / 56.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
66.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +14.5 (Under)
Over 66.0 22%
Under 66.0 78%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Texas State)
UTSAUTSA (+2.5) 0 Texas StTXST (-2.5)
Texas State Bobcats (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

24.9%

Texas St Cover

75.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXST -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

UTSA By 1-6 points

11.1%

UTSA By 7-13 points

7.6%

TXST By 1-6 points

15.5%

TXST By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
UTSA
Book Implied: 31.80
30.5
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 34.20
Simulated Score
27
UTSA
Book Implied: 31.80
38
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 34.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas St Loss
71% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Loss
86% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas St (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.5
C
Sim Texas St (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u66.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.5
A
Sim u66.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 UTSA @ TXST 31 - 26
Sep 6, 2025 TXST @ UTSA 43 - 36
Sep 7, 2024 UTSA @ TXST 10 - 49
Sep 9, 2023 TXST @ UTSA 13 - 20
Sep 12, 2020 UTSA @ TXST 51 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +141.0% more
Texas State: 1.9 vs UTSA: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Texas State: 0.5 vs UTSA: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
UTSA: 472.6 vs Texas State: 426.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 21.0 31
TXST Score 30.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 23.4 27.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 199.1 / 194.5 289.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 426.8 / 472.6 481.0 / 398.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -113 / -103 → +114 / -129 ↑
25%TICKETS75%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 64.5 → 66 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
UTSA
TXST
UTSA
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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