MARYLAND
MARYLANDMD
2-0 | Road
38
UCONN
UCONNCONN
1-1 | Home
14
Key Game
KEY GAME
Bryce McFerson
#34 | Punter@
👤
KEY GAME
Tommy Warner
#49 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Bryce McFerson | None-None |
| Tommy Warner | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARYLAND
69%
UCONN
31%
MARYLAND
--
UCONN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
38%
Under 0
62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
MD By 1-6 points
16.1%
MD By 7-13 points
19.5%
CONN By 1-6 points
12.2%
CONN By 7-13 points
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
27.5
MARYLAND
UConn
19.5
UCONN
Simulated Score
Maryland
22
MARYLAND
UConn
37
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maryland
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
UConn
Loss
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
UConn (+11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
UConn (+11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u52.5
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim
o52.5
Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
MD @ CONN
38 - 14
Aug 31, 2024
CONN @ MD
7 - 50
Sep 14, 2013
MD @ CONN
32 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+13.1% more
UConn: 209.4
vs
Maryland: 185.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
27.5
38
CONN Score
19.5
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
23.4 / 24.0
12.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards
209.4 / 185.2
67.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.27 / 0.53
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards
493.1 / 483.4
223.0 / 475.0
Turnovers
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
2-4-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: -5.5
CONN
Advantage
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: -5.5
CONN
Advantage
4-1-1
(80.0%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7%
Total +/-: +6.2
CONN
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
MD
CONN
MD
ML
67%
4-2
67%
4-2
33%
2-4
50%
3-3
ATS
50%
3-3
17%
1-5
50%
3-3
17%
1-5
TTL
50%
3-3
67%
4-2
67%
4-2
50%
3-3
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