Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Michigan St EMU @ MSU

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

2-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
@
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
Player
Rudy Kessinger None-None
Rhys Dakin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
8%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
92%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (MSU)
E MICHIGAN 14% Book Odds: +600
MICHIGAN ST 90% Book Odds: -901
Book Implied: 14.30% / 90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 69%
Under 49.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.6
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
-17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 points (Michigan State)
E MichiganEMU (+17.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (-17.5)
Michigan State Spartans (-17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

3.4%

Michigan St Cover

96.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU -25.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

EMU By 1-6 points

2.0%

EMU By 7-13 points

0.8%

MSU By 1-6 points

5.0%

MSU By 7-13 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 16
41.8
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
23
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 16
33
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan St Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim Michigan St Win
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Michigan St (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.6
C
Sim E Michigan (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 EMU @ MSU 7 - 35
Sep 20, 2014 EMU @ MSU 14 - 73
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +19.4% more
Michigan State: 21.7 vs Eastern Michigan: 18.2
Turnovers (L5) +69.9% more
Eastern Michigan: 2.0 vs Michigan State: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 16.2 7
MSU Score 41.8 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 18.2 24.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 131.4 / 129.4 258.0 / 101.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 377.5 / 361.6 472.0 / 219.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +600 / -901 → +600 / -901
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +17.5 / -17.5 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 49.5 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
MSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
EMU
MSU
EMU
ML
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
ATS
50% 2-2-1
50% 3-3
25% 1-3-1
33% 2-4
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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