CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIACAL
1-1 | Road
21
SYRACUSE
SYRACUSESYR
1-1 | Home
18
Key Game
KEY GAME
Angus Davies
#29 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Davien Kerr
#3 | Defensive Back| Player | |
|---|---|
| Angus Davies | None-None |
| Davien Kerr | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
41%
SYRACUSE
59%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (CAL)
CALIFORNIA
39%
Book Odds: +158
SYRACUSE
64%
Book Odds: -180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +6.0 (Under)
Over 56.0
36%
Under 56.0
64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Syracuse)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SYR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)
CAL By 1-6 points
14.7%
CAL By 7-13 points
12.1%
SYR By 1-6 points
17.0%
SYR By 7-13 points
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
California
23
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 26.20
Syracuse
27
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 29.80
Simulated Score
California
23
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 26.20
Syracuse
22
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 29.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Syracuse
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
California
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Syracuse (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
California (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u56.0
Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim
u56.0
Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
CAL @ SYR
21 - 18
Nov 16, 2024
SYR @ CAL
33 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+72.6% more
Syracuse: 177.0
vs
California: 102.5
Turnovers (L5)
+27.9% more
California: 1.5
vs
Syracuse: 1.1
Total Yards (L5)
+16.0% more
California: 409.3
vs
Syracuse: 343.6
First Downs (L5)
+9.1% more
California: 23.3
vs
Syracuse: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAL Score
23.0
21
SYR Score
27.0
18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.2 / 23.3
27.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards
177.0 / 102.5
118.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.5
0.41 / 0.25
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards
343.6 / 409.3
436.0 / 249.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.5
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -153
→
+158 / -180
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3
→
+3.5 / -3.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5
→
56
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -9.7
ATS +/-: -9.5
SYR
Advantage
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
2-7-0
(22.2%)
Margin: -9.7
ATS +/-: -9.5
SYR
Advantage
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -1.7
SYR
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
CAL
SYR
CAL
ML
62%
5-3
56%
5-4
75%
6-2
78%
7-2
ATS
38%
3-5
33%
3-6
88%
7-1
56%
5-4
TTL
62%
5-3
56%
5-4
75%
6-2
78%
7-2
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