Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ Syracuse CAL @ SYR

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

1-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome
View Odds Details →

SYRACUSE

SYRACUSESYR

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18
Key Game
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
@
Davien Kerr
KEY GAME

Davien Kerr

#3 | Defensive Back
Player
Angus Davies None-None
Davien Kerr None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
41%
📊
SYRACUSE
59%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (CAL)
CALIFORNIA 39% Book Odds: +158
SYRACUSE 64% Book Odds: -180
Book Implied: 38.80% / 64.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.0 (Under)
Over 56.0 36%
Under 56.0 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Syracuse)
CaliforniaCAL (+3.5) 0 SyracuseSYR (-3.5)
Syracuse Orange (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

38.8%

Syracuse Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SYR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)

CAL By 1-6 points

14.7%

CAL By 7-13 points

12.1%

SYR By 1-6 points

17.0%

SYR By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 26.20
27
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 29.80
Simulated Score
23
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 26.20
22
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 29.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Syracuse Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim California Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Syracuse (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim California (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 CAL @ SYR 21 - 18
Nov 16, 2024 SYR @ CAL 33 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +72.6% more
Syracuse: 177.0 vs California: 102.5
Turnovers (L5) +27.9% more
California: 1.5 vs Syracuse: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
California: 409.3 vs Syracuse: 343.6
First Downs (L5) +9.1% more
California: 23.3 vs Syracuse: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 23.0 21
SYR Score 27.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 23.3 27.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 177.0 / 102.5 118.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 343.6 / 409.3 436.0 / 249.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -153 → +158 / -180 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
SYR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
SYR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.0
SYR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
CAL
SYR
CAL
ML
80% 4-1
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
TTL
60% 3-2
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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