UCF
UCFUCF
1-1 | Road
7
PITTSBURGH
PITTPITT
2-0 | Home
12
Key Game
KEY GAME
Atticus Bertrams
#49 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Gabe Russo
#98 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Atticus Bertrams | None-None |
| Gabe Russo | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
43%
PITT
57%
▲ Edge: +13.50% (UCF)
UCF
29%
Book Odds: +240
PITT
75%
Book Odds: -298
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 55.5
63%
Under 55.5
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
UCF
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (UCF)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCF +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)
UCF By 1-6 points
15.3%
UCF By 7-13 points
12.9%
PITT By 1-6 points
17.0%
PITT By 7-13 points
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
UCF
29.5
UCF
Book Implied: 24.20
Pittsburgh
32.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31.20
Simulated Score
UCF
24
UCF
Book Implied: 24.20
Pittsburgh
32
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pitt
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pitt
Win
79% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
UCF (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Sim
Pitt (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o55.5
Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Sim
o55.5
Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
UCF @ PITT
7 - 12
Sep 21, 2019
UCF @ PITT
34 - 35
Sep 29, 2018
PITT @ UCF
14 - 45
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+28.1% more
Pittsburgh: 24.4
vs
UCF: 19.0
Total Yards (L5)
+10.6% more
Pittsburgh: 445.9
vs
UCF: 403.0
Rushing Yards (L5)
+31.2% more
UCF: 184.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 127.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCF Score
29.5
7
PITT Score
32.5
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.4 / 19.0
15.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards
127.1 / 184.9
103.0 / 20.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.28 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards
445.9 / 403.0
315.0 / 206.0
Turnovers
1.6 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285
→
+240 / -298
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5
→
+7 / -7
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5
→
55.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +5.2
PITT
Advantage
5-1-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 20.2
ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
4-2-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +5.2
PITT
4-2-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 20.2
ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
PITT
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
UCF
PITT
UCF
ML
83%
5-1
67%
4-2
67%
4-2
100%
6-0
ATS
67%
4-2
33%
2-4
17%
1-5
33%
2-4
TTL
17%
1-5
50%
3-3
67%
4-2
33%
2-4
Contextual Game News
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Rutgers Crushed by Indiana 47-15 as Schiano Searches for Answers
AP Top 25 Shakeup: Projecting the New College Football Rankings …