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WEBER STATE

WEBER STWEB

1-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Folsom Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

2-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
David Dellenbach
KEY GAME

David Dellenbach

#99 | Place kicker
@
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
Player
David Dellenbach None-None
Damon Greaves None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEBER ST
5%
📊
COLORADO
95%
WEBER ST 5% Book Odds: +2000
COLORADO 99% Book Odds: -6667
Book Implied: 4.80% / 98.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 57.5 41%
Under 57.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+31.4
WEBER STATE
Book Spread
+38.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Weber State)
Weber StWEB (+38.5) 0 ColoradoCOLO (-38.5)
Weber State Wildcats (+38.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Weber St Cover

98.8%

Colorado Cover

1.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WEB +31.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WEB)

WEB By 1-6 points

0.8%

WEB By 7-13 points

0.3%

COLO By 1-6 points

2.4%

COLO By 7-13 points

6.3%

AI Model Projected Score
10.8
WEBER STATE
Book Implied: 9.50
42.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 48
Simulated Score
13
WEBER STATE
Book Implied: 9.50
31
COLORADO
Book Implied: 48
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Colorado Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Colorado Win
96% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Weber St (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: +31.4
C
Sim Weber St (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: +18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 WEB @ COLO 21 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +56.5% more
Colorado: 311.1 vs Weber State: 198.7
First Downs (L5) +52.7% more
Colorado: 17.8 vs Weber State: 11.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Colorado: 141.8 vs Weber State: 103.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Colorado: 0.4 vs Weber State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WEB Score 10.8 21
COLO Score 42.2 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 11.7 24.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 141.8 / 103.4 180.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.46 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 311.1 / 198.7 578.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6667 → +2000 / -6667
2%TICKETS98%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +33.5 / -33.5 → +38.5 / -38.5 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 57.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WEB
--
COLO Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -10.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WEB
--
COLO Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -10.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WEB
--
COLO
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
WEB
COLO
WEB
ML
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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