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MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

2-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

1-1  |  Home

13
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Quayd Hendryx
KEY GAME

Quayd Hendryx

#89 | Wide Receiver
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Quayd Hendryx None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
22%
📊
MINNESOTA
78%
▲ Edge: +25.20% (MINN)
MISSISSIPPI ST 52% Book Odds: -110
MINNESOTA 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 52.40% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 47%
Under 53.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.5 points (Minnesota)
Mississippi StMSST (-1.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+1.5)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

17.7%

Minnesota Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

MSST By 1-6 points

8.6%

MSST By 7-13 points

5.3%

MINN By 1-6 points

13.5%

MINN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
33
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
30
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
28
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Minnesota Loss
78% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Win
59% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Minnesota (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
B
Sim Mississippi St (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 MSST @ MINN 38 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.7% more
Mississippi State: 244.6 vs Minnesota: 113.2
Total Yards (L5) +39.3% more
Mississippi State: 549.3 vs Minnesota: 333.5
First Downs (L5) +35.9% more
Mississippi State: 28.0 vs Minnesota: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 20.0 38
MINN Score 33.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 28.0 18.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 113.2 / 244.6 13.0 / 252.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 333.5 / 549.3 292.0 / 479.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → -110 / -110 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 27.0 ATS +/-: +18.2
MINN
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 20.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 27.0 ATS +/-: +18.2
MINN
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 20.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +11.2
MINN
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
MSST
MINN
MSST
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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