Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colgate @ C Michigan COLG @ CMU

COLGATE

COLGATECOLG

2-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

1-1  |  Home

13
Key Game
Tyler Fontenot
KEY GAME

Tyler Fontenot

#37 | Place kicker
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Tyler Fontenot None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLGATE
5%
📊
C MICHIGAN
95%
▲ Edge: +0.70% (CMU)
COLGATE 10% Book Odds: +900
C MICHIGAN 94% Book Odds: -1587
Book Implied: 10% / 94.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 73%
Under 49.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.6
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
-18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.1 points (Central Michigan)
ColgateCOLG (+18.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (-18.5)
Central Michigan Chippewas (-18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colgate Cover

1.4%

C Michigan Cover

98.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU -30.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

COLG By 1-6 points

0.9%

COLG By 7-13 points

0.3%

CMU By 1-6 points

2.7%

CMU By 7-13 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
COLGATE
Book Implied: 15.50
44.8
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
13
COLGATE
Book Implied: 15.50
32
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim C Michigan Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI C Michigan (-18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.6
B
Sim C Michigan (-18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 COLG @ CMU 10 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.9% more
Central Michigan: 119.3 vs Colgate: 107.6
First Downs (L5) +17.6% more
Colgate: 16.4 vs Central Michigan: 13.5
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Colgate: 2.3 vs Central Michigan: 2.1
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Colgate: 281.0 vs Central Michigan: 255.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLG Score 14.2 10
CMU Score 44.8 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.5 / 16.4 16.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 119.3 / 107.6 200.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 255.0 / 281.0 276.0 / 219.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 2.3 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1300 / -2778 → +900 / -1587 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +18.5 / -18.5 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
65%TICKETS35%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG
--
CMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
--
CMU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
--
CMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
COLG
CMU
COLG
ML
100% 6-0
50% 1-1
83% 5-1
50% 1-1
ATS
50% 3-3
0% 0-2
33% 2-4
0% 0-2
TTL
33% 2-4
0% 0-2
50% 3-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Raiders' Ashton Jeanty Injury: Fantasy Football Fallout and Back…
si 1 day, 9 hours ago
Middle Tennessee Outlasts Delaware 33-30 in Tuesday Night Thrill…
yahoo 1 day, 21 hours ago
Late Fumble Return Sinks Central Lakes College in 28-14 Loss to …
brainerddispatch 4 days, 3 hours ago
Mount Union Hosts Marietta on Homecoming: Live Score and Updates
yahoo 5 days, 9 hours ago
Texas Tech Survives Houston's Late Two-Point Try, Wins Big 12 Op…
abcnews 3 weeks, 5 days ago