Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UT Martin @ West Virginia UTM @ WVU

UT MARTIN

UT MARTINUTM

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

2-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Brandon Sims
KEY GAME

Brandon Sims

#37 | Place kicker
@
Bryan Hansen
KEY GAME

Bryan Hansen

#83 | Punter
Player
Brandon Sims None-None
Bryan Hansen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UT MARTIN
4%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
96%
UT MARTIN --
WEST VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.6
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 56.5 59%
Under 56.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+33.0
UT MARTIN
Book Spread
+41.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (UT Martin)
UT MartinUTM (+41.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (-41.5)
UT Martin Skyhawks (+41.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UT Martin Cover

99.1%

West Virginia Cover

0.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTM +33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTM)

UTM By 1-6 points

0.6%

UTM By 7-13 points

0.2%

WVU By 1-6 points

1.9%

WVU By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
UT MARTIN
Book Implied: 7.50
46.8
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 49
Simulated Score
17
UT MARTIN
Book Implied: 7.50
28
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 49
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI West Virginia Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim West Virginia Win
86% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UT Martin (+41.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +33.0
B
Sim UT Martin (+41.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.6
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 UTM @ WVU 7 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +83.6% more
West Virginia: 161.6 vs UT Martin: 88.0
Total Yards (L5) +30.2% more
West Virginia: 344.5 vs UT Martin: 264.5
First Downs (L5) +10.9% more
West Virginia: 16.8 vs UT Martin: 15.2
Turnovers (L5) +19.8% more
UT Martin: 1.7 vs West Virginia: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 13.8 7
WVU Score 46.8 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 15.2 23.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 161.6 / 88.0 316.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 344.5 / 264.5 525.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +41.5 / -41.5 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 56.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
--
WVU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.0 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
--
WVU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 21.0 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
--
WVU
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
UTM
WVU
UTM
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 2-0-1
67% 2-1
0% 0-2-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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