Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Florida @ Army USF @ ARMY

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

2-0  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARMY

ARMYARMY

1-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
@
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Goater None-None
Dawson Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
52%
📊
ARMY
48%
▲ Edge: +11.10% (USF)
SOUTH FLORIDA 41% Book Odds: +145
ARMY 63% Book Odds: -169
Book Implied: 40.80% / 62.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 58%
Under 46.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (South Florida)
South FloridaUSF (+3.5) 0 ArmyARMY (-3.5)
South Florida Bulls (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

52.8%

Army Cover

47.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-6 points

16.7%

USF By 7-13 points

16.1%

ARMY By 1-6 points

16.1%

ARMY By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
25
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 21.50
24
ARMY
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
33
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 21.50
22
ARMY
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Florida Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim South Florida Win
87% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Florida (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim South Florida (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 USF @ ARMY 28 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.2% more
South Florida: 1.5 vs Army: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +133.1% more
Army: 359.5 vs South Florida: 154.2
Total Yards (L5) +15.3% more
Army: 442.1 vs South Florida: 383.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Army: 0.5 vs South Florida: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 25.0 28
ARMY Score 24.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 20.5 21.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 359.5 / 154.2 219.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 442.1 / 383.3 347.0 / 369.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -178 → +145 / -169 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3.5 / -3.5
75%TICKETS25%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 46.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.7 ATS +/-: +2.5
ARMY
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 18.7 ATS +/-: +2.5
ARMY
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -0.8
ARMY
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
USF
ARMY
USF
ML
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
ATS
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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