Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ Purdue WAKE @ PUR

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

2-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

1-1  |  Home

36
Key Game
Ethan Hyams
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
@
Dylan Drennan
KEY GAME

Dylan Drennan

#42 | Punter
Player
Ethan Hyams None-None
Dylan Drennan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
65%
📊
PURDUE
35%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (WAKE)
WAKE FOREST 59% Book Odds: -142
PURDUE 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 54%
Under 51.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Wake Forest)
Wake ForestWAKE (-3) 0 PurduePUR (+3)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

67.6%

Purdue Cover

32.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WAKE -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)

WAKE By 1-6 points

16.6%

WAKE By 7-13 points

19.1%

PUR By 1-6 points

13.3%

PUR By 7-13 points

10.1%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 27.20
22.8
PURDUE
Book Implied: 24.20
Simulated Score
29
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 27.20
22
PURDUE
Book Implied: 24.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wake Forest Win
65% Win Prob
D
Sim Wake Forest Win
75% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wake Forest (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.4
D
Sim Wake Forest (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 WAKE @ PUR 38 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.3% more
Wake Forest: 184.3 vs Purdue: 123.0
Total Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Wake Forest: 485.8 vs Purdue: 361.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.5% more
Wake Forest: 1.3 vs Purdue: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 29.2 38
PUR Score 22.8 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 20.7 29.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 123.0 / 184.3 126.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 361.1 / 485.8 455.0 / 411.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -142 / +120 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -3 / +3 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 51.5 ↑
25%TICKETS75%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
WAKE
PUR
WAKE
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2-1
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Purdue Insider Breaks Down Gophers Clash, NIL Challenges, and Ij…
twincities 1 day, 6 hours ago
Purdue Halts 19-Game Big Ten Skid with 24-17 Win at Illinois
yahoo 4 days, 17 hours ago
Louisville Visits NC State for First True Road Test of 2026
si 5 days, 6 hours ago
Pat Narduzzi Tells AP Voters to 'Wake Their A** Up' After Pitt's…
awfulannouncing 5 days, 18 hours ago
Omer Mayer Ready to Lead Purdue's Backcourt After Offseason Impr…
si 1 week ago