Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech ODU @ VT

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

1-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

2-0  |  Home

44
Key Game
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
@
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Ian Brandt None-None
John Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLD DOMINION
28%
📊
VIRGINIA TECH
72%
▲ Edge: +14.50% (ODU)
OLD DOMINION 13% Book Odds: +650
VIRGINIA TECH 91% Book Odds: -1000
Book Implied: 13.30% / 90.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 47.5 58%
Under 47.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
+17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Old Dominion)
Old DominionODU (+17.5) 0 Virginia TechVT (-17.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs (+17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Old Dominion Cover

76.2%

Virginia Tech Cover

23.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ODU +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

ODU By 1-6 points

10.7%

ODU By 7-13 points

7.3%

VT By 1-6 points

15.3%

VT By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 15
30.8
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
33
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 15
27
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Virginia Tech Win
72% Win Prob
C
Sim Old Dominion Loss
72% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
B
Sim Old Dominion (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.6
C
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ODU @ VT 21 - 44
Sep 13, 2025 ODU @ VT 45 - 26
Sep 14, 2024 VT @ ODU 37 - 17
Sep 2, 2023 ODU @ VT 17 - 36
Sep 2, 2022 VT @ ODU 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Old Dominion: 0.5 vs Virginia Tech: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Old Dominion: 244.5 vs Virginia Tech: 209.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 20.8 21
VT Score 30.8 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 21.2 26.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 209.7 / 244.5 89.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 412.4 / 395.1 416.0 / 310.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +455 / -625 → +650 / -1000 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +17.5 / -17.5 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 47.5 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
VT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
VT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
ODU
VT
ODU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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