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EAST TENNESSEE STATE

ETSUETSU

1-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Luke Stewart
KEY GAME

Luke Stewart

#44 | Punter
@
Aeron Burrell
KEY GAME

Aeron Burrell

#92 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Stewart None-None
Aeron Burrell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ETSU
5%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
95%
ETSU --
NORTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.1 (Under)
Over 54.5 47%
Under 54.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+32.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
+35.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (East Tennessee State)
ETSUETSU (+35.5) 0 North CarolinaUNC (-35.5)
East Tennessee State Buccaneers (+35.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

ETSU Cover

98.9%

North Carolina Cover

1.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ETSU +32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

ETSU By 1-6 points

0.7%

ETSU By 7-13 points

0.2%

UNC By 1-6 points

2.2%

UNC By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
10.2
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Implied: 9.50
42.2
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 45
Simulated Score
13
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Implied: 9.50
29
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 45
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Carolina Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim North Carolina Win
94% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI ETSU (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +32.0
C
Sim ETSU (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.4
D
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ETSU @ UNC 3 - 35
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +52.9% more
North Carolina: 18.0 vs East Tennessee State: 11.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +28.0% more
North Carolina: 0.5 vs East Tennessee State: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +24.6% more
North Carolina: 287.0 vs East Tennessee State: 230.4
Turnovers (L5) +29.4% more
East Tennessee State: 1.1 vs North Carolina: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 10.2 3
UNC Score 42.2 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 11.8 23.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 88.5 / 105.4 161.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.56 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 287.0 / 230.4 427.0 / 255.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
8%TICKETS92%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +35.5 / -35.5
85%TICKETS15%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54.5
37%TICKETS63%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU
--
UNC Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.7 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
--
UNC Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 9.7 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
--
UNC
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
ETSU
UNC
ETSU
ML
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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