Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rutgers @ Boston College RUTG @ BC

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

0-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-1  |  Home

28
Key Game
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
@
Bryce LaFollette
KEY GAME

Bryce LaFollette

#96 | Punter
Player
Jakob Anderson None-None
Bryce LaFollette None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RUTGERS
57%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
43%
▲ Edge: +12.50% (RUTG)
RUTGERS 45% Book Odds: +124
BOSTON COLLEGE 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 42%
Under 53.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
RUTGERS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Rutgers)
RutgersRUTG (+3) 0 Boston CollegeBC (-3)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rutgers Cover

58.5%

Boston College Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RUTG -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)

RUTG By 1-6 points

17.0%

RUTG By 7-13 points

17.5%

BC By 1-6 points

15.3%

BC By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 25.20
23.5
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
30
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 25.20
28
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rutgers Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Rutgers Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rutgers (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Rutgers (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 RUTG @ BC 21 - 28
Sep 3, 2022 RUTG @ BC 22 - 21
Sep 21, 2019 BC @ RUTG 30 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.4% more
Rutgers: 2.1 vs Boston College: 1.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.2% more
Boston College: 138.4 vs Rutgers: 111.4
First Downs (L5) +10.2% more
Boston College: 22.4 vs Rutgers: 20.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score 26.5 21
BC Score 23.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 20.3 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 138.4 / 111.4 150.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 407.2 / 380.7 402.0 / 384.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +140 / -166 → +124 / -148 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 53.5 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.2
BC Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.2
BC Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.1
BC
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
RUTG
BC
RUTG
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
ATS
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
TTL
43% 3-4-1
62% 5-3
43% 3-4-1
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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