Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Richmond @ NC State RICH @ NCSU

RICHMOND

RICHMONDRICH

2-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

1-1  |  Home

73
Key Game
Ned Gray
KEY GAME

Ned Gray

#37 | Punter
@
Ke'Von Carter
KEY GAME

Ke'Von Carter

#42 | Linebacker
Player
Ned Gray None-None
Ke'Von Carter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICHMOND
4%
📊
NC STATE
96%
RICHMOND 5% Book Odds: +2000
NC STATE 99% Book Odds: -6667
Book Implied: 4.80% / 98.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 76%
Under 50.5 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.4
NC STATE
Book Spread
-33.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (NC State)
RichmondRICH (+33.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (-33.5)
NC State Wolfpack (-33.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Richmond Cover

0.7%

NC State Cover

99.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCSU -34.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

RICH By 1-6 points

0.5%

RICH By 7-13 points

0.1%

NCSU By 1-6 points

1.5%

NCSU By 7-13 points

4.5%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
RICHMOND
Book Implied: 8.50
48.2
NC STATE
Book Implied: 42
Simulated Score
14
RICHMOND
Book Implied: 8.50
34
NC STATE
Book Implied: 42
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI NC State Win
96% Win Prob
B
Sim NC State Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI NC State (-33.5) Win
Proj Spread: -34.4
D
Sim Richmond (+33.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +20.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Sim u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 RICH @ NCSU 0 - 73
Sep 7, 2013 RICH @ NCSU 21 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +41.1% more
NC State: 346.9 vs Richmond: 245.9
First Downs (L5) +32.2% more
NC State: 19.6 vs Richmond: 14.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
NC State: 0.4 vs Richmond: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +74.5% more
Richmond: 1.6 vs NC State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICH Score 13.8 0
NCSU Score 48.2 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 14.9 31.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 136.6 / 128.1 428.0 / 34.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.8 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 346.9 / 245.9 734.0 / 110.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2200 / -7692 → +2000 / -6667
8%TICKETS92%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +33.5 / -33.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 50.5 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICH
--
NCSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICH
--
NCSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
RICH
--
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
RICH
NCSU
RICH
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rodriguez: Roster Turnover Slowing WVU's Progress
theintermountain 18 hours, 11 minutes ago
Mountaineers' Defensive Coordinator Zac Alley Loses Sleep Over S…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago
Louisville Visits NC State for First True Road Test of 2026
si 5 days, 6 hours ago
CFP Expansion to 24 Teams Gains Momentum, but 2027 Start Not Gua…
cbssports 1 week ago
Louisville's QB Dilemma: Kienholz Questionable as Cardinals Brac…
yahoo 1 week ago