Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Norfolk St @ Virginia NORF @ UVA

NORFOLK STATE

NORFOLK STNORF

1-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

2-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
Marco Peery
KEY GAME

Marco Peery

#97 | Place kicker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Chris Messmore

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Marco Peery None-None
Chris Messmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORFOLK ST
3%
📊
VIRGINIA
97%
NORFOLK ST --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 56.5 56%
Under 56.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.5
NORFOLK STATE
Book Spread
+46.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Norfolk State)
Norfolk StNORF (+46.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (-46.5)
Norfolk State Spartans (+46.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Norfolk St Cover

99.4%

Virginia Cover

0.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NORF +35.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NORF)

NORF By 1-6 points

0.4%

NORF By 7-13 points

0.1%

UVA By 1-6 points

1.3%

UVA By 7-13 points

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
11.5
NORFOLK STATE
Book Implied: 5
47
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 51.50
Simulated Score
13
NORFOLK STATE
Book Implied: 5
38
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 51.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia Win
97% Win Prob
B
Sim Virginia Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Norfolk St (+46.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +35.5
A
Sim Norfolk St (+46.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +25.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.5
D
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 NORF @ UVA 3 - 59
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +85.1% more
Virginia: 21.0 vs Norfolk State: 11.3
Total Yards (L5) +75.5% more
Virginia: 359.8 vs Norfolk State: 205.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.8% more
Virginia: 146.7 vs Norfolk State: 101.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +28.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Norfolk State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 11.5 3
UVA Score 47.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 11.3 25.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 146.7 / 101.3 237.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.5 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 359.8 / 205.0 466.0 / 223.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +44.5 / -44.5 → +46.5 / -46.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56.5 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF
--
UVA Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.7 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF
--
UVA Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.7 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
--
UVA
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
NORF
UVA
NORF
ML
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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