Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / SE Louisiana @ South Alabama SELA @ USA

SE LOUISIANA

SE LOUISIANASELA

0-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-0  |  Home

39
Key Game
Jack Hunter
KEY GAME

Jack Hunter

#46 | Punter
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Jack Hunter None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SE LOUISIANA
19%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
81%
SE LOUISIANA 20% Book Odds: +410
SOUTH ALABAMA 86% Book Odds: -621
Book Implied: 19.60% / 86.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.3
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.2 (Under)
Over 53.5 36%
Under 53.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.9
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
-13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (South Alabama)
SE LouisianaSELA (+13.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (-13.5)
South Alabama Jaguars (-13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SE Louisiana Cover

12.8%

South Alabama Cover

87.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USA -15.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

SELA By 1-6 points

6.6%

SELA By 7-13 points

3.7%

USA By 1-6 points

11.5%

USA By 7-13 points

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
15.2
SE LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 20
31.1
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
12
SE LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 20
40
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Alabama Win
81% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Alabama (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.9
B
Sim South Alabama (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.3
C
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 SELA @ USA 14 - 39
Sep 9, 2023 SELA @ USA 17 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +116.0% more
South Alabama: 211.3 vs SE Louisiana: 97.8
Total Yards (L5) +52.4% more
South Alabama: 387.4 vs SE Louisiana: 254.1
First Downs (L5) +51.6% more
South Alabama: 22.4 vs SE Louisiana: 14.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
South Alabama: 0.4 vs SE Louisiana: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 15.2 14
USA Score 31.1 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 14.8 27.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 211.3 / 97.8 241.0 / 45.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.41 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards 387.4 / 254.1 395.0 / 231.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +355 / -538 → +410 / -621 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↑
25%TICKETS75%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 53.5 ↑
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
--
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
--
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
--
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
SELA
USA
SELA
ML
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
ATS
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
TTL
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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