Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Norfolk St @ Old Dominion NORF @ ODU

NORFOLK STATE

NORFOLK STNORF

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

1-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Marco Peery
KEY GAME

Marco Peery

#97 | Place kicker
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Marco Peery None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORFOLK ST
4%
📊
OLD DOMINION
96%
NORFOLK ST --
OLD DOMINION --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.7
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 52.5 56%
Under 52.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+31.9
NORFOLK STATE
Book Spread
+41.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.6 points (Norfolk State)
Norfolk StNORF (+41.5) 0 Old DominionODU (-41.5)
Norfolk State Spartans (+41.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Norfolk St Cover

98.9%

Old Dominion Cover

1.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NORF +31.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NORF)

NORF By 1-6 points

0.7%

NORF By 7-13 points

0.2%

ODU By 1-6 points

2.2%

ODU By 7-13 points

6.0%

AI Model Projected Score
11.4
NORFOLK STATE
Book Implied: 5.50
43.3
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 47
Simulated Score
11
NORFOLK STATE
Book Implied: 5.50
43
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 47
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Old Dominion Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Norfolk St (+41.5) Win
Proj Spread: +31.9
B
Sim Norfolk St (+41.5) Win
Proj Spread: +32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.7
D
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 NORF @ ODU 10 - 31
Aug 31, 2019 NORF @ ODU 21 - 24
Sep 12, 2015 NORF @ ODU 10 - 24
Oct 26, 2013 ODU @ NORF 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +209.9% more
Old Dominion: 275.8 vs Norfolk State: 89.0
Total Yards (L5) +119.3% more
Old Dominion: 433.1 vs Norfolk State: 197.5
First Downs (L5) +117.1% more
Old Dominion: 23.8 vs Norfolk State: 11.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
Old Dominion: 0.5 vs Norfolk State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 11.4 10
ODU Score 43.3 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 11.0 16.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 275.8 / 89.0 182.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.56 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 433.1 / 197.5 319.0 / 220.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.6 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +41 / -41 → +41.5 / -41.5 ↑
99%TICKETS1%
98%MONEY2%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 52.5
46%TICKETS54%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF
--
ODU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF
--
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
--
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
NORF
ODU
NORF
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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