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ALCORN STATE

ALCORN STALCN

1-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 5:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

1-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Kenyon Bowyer

#37 | Place kicker
@
Jonah Martinez
KEY GAME

Jonah Martinez

#16 | Defensive Back
Player
Kenyon Bowyer None-None
Jonah Martinez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALCORN ST
7%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
93%
ALCORN ST 10% Book Odds: +900
SOUTHERN MISS 94% Book Odds: -1587
Book Implied: 10% / 94.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.9
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 51.5 52%
Under 51.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.3
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
-19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.8 points (Southern Miss)
Alcorn StALCN (+19.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (-19.5)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alcorn St Cover

2.6%

Southern Miss Cover

97.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM -27.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

ALCN By 1-6 points

1.6%

ALCN By 7-13 points

0.6%

USM By 1-6 points

4.1%

USM By 7-13 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
12.3
ALCORN STATE
Book Implied: 16
39.6
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 35.50
Simulated Score
15
ALCORN STATE
Book Implied: 16
35
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 35.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Southern Miss Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim Southern Miss Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss (-19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.3
C
Sim Southern Miss (-19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.9
D
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ALCN @ USM 3 - 49
Sep 2, 2023 ALCN @ USM 14 - 40
Aug 31, 2019 ALCN @ USM 10 - 38
Sep 6, 2014 ALCN @ USM 20 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +131.5% more
Southern Miss: 385.7 vs Alcorn State: 166.6
First Downs (L5) +128.3% more
Southern Miss: 21.1 vs Alcorn State: 9.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.9% more
Southern Miss: 112.5 vs Alcorn State: 85.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Southern Miss: 0.4 vs Alcorn State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score 12.3 3
USM Score 39.6 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 9.3 32.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 112.5 / 85.3 317.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.42 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 385.7 / 166.6 543.0 / 223.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.2 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +750 / -1205 → +900 / -1587 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +19.5 / -19.5 → +19.5 / -19.5
56%TICKETS44%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 51.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
--
USM Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
--
USM Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
--
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
ALCN
USM
ALCN
ML
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
20% 1-4
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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