Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Alavés vs Osasuna Alavés vs Osasuna

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-2  |  Home

5
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 12:30 PM ET
Mendizorrotza

OSASUNAOSASUNA

2-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
ALAVÉS
35%
DRAW
31%
OSASUNA
35%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (Osasuna)
44% Book Odds: +125
DRAW --
27% Book Odds: +265
Book Implied: 44.40% / % / 27.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 37%
Under 2.5 63%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
OSASUNA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Osasuna)
AlavésAlavés (-0.5) 0 OsasunaOsasuna (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.6% / 50.4%

Shots (On Goal)

12(7) / 7(5)

Corners

4 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Osasuna 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Osasuna)

Alavés By 1 goal

21.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

15.9%

Osasuna By 1 goal

21.1%

Osasuna By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.50
0
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
37% Win Prob
C
Sim Alavés Win
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Osasuna (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Alavés (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u2.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
B
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 Alavés vs Osasuna 5 - 2
Apr 5, 2026 Alavés vs Osasuna 2 - 2
Dec 20, 2025 Osasuna vs Alavés 3 - 0
May 24, 2025 Alavés vs Osasuna 1 - 1
Dec 8, 2024 Osasuna vs Alavés 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Alavés: 7.0 vs Osasuna: 3.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Alavés: 2.0 vs Osasuna: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Alavés: 1.0 vs Osasuna: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Osasuna Score 1.0 2
Alavés Score 1.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Alavés (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Alavés Share: 50.0% Osasuna Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Alavés
Osasuna
Alavés
Osasuna
ML
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
ATS
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
TTL
50% 3-3-1
57% 4-3
27% 1-4-1
69% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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