Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Valencia vs Barcelona Valencia vs Barcelona

VALENCIAVALENCIA

1-1-5  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 10:15 AM ET
Mestalla Stadium

BARCELONABARCELONA

7-0-0  |  Away

5
AI Model Win Probability
VALENCIA
18%
DRAW
21%
BARCELONA
61%
▲ Edge: +26% (Valencia)
10% Book Odds: +950
DRAW --
79% Book Odds: -380
Book Implied: 9.50% / % / 79.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 39%
Under 3.5 61%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
VALENCIA
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Valencia)
ValenciaValencia (+1.5) 0 BarcelonaBarcelona (-1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

26.5% / 73.5%

Shots (On Goal)

3(2) / 25(10)

Corners

1 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Valencia +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Valencia)

Valencia By 1 goal

11.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

4.8%

Barcelona By 1 goal

26.1%

Barcelona By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
2
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
3
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Barcelona Win
64% Win Prob
A
Sim Barcelona Win
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Valencia (+1.75) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Barcelona (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o3.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 Valencia vs Barcelona 0 - 5
Sep 14, 2025 Barcelona vs Valencia 6 - 0
Jan 26, 2025 Barcelona vs Valencia 7 - 1
Aug 17, 2024 Valencia vs Barcelona 1 - 2
Apr 29, 2024 Barcelona vs Valencia 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Barcelona: 5.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Barcelona: 0.0 vs Valencia: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +280.0% more
Barcelona: 19.0 vs Valencia: 5.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Barcelona: 5.0 vs Valencia: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Barcelona Score 2.0 5
Valencia Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Valencia (Home) vs Barcelona (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Valencia Share: 33.3% Barcelona Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Valencia
Barcelona
Valencia
Barcelona
ML
57% 4-3
100% 7-0
29% 2-5
100% 7-0
ATS
83% 5-1
43% 3-4
50% 3-3
86% 6-1
TTL
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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