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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

75-72  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

73-75  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Anthony Kay
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Kay

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Matthew Liberatore
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Liberatore

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Anthony Kay 9-8 4.47 1.36 141.0 116
Matthew Liberatore 5-14 5.57 1.47 139.0 144
9-8 W-L 5-14
4.47 Ldr ERA 5.57
1.36 Ldr WHIP 1.47
141.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 139.0
116 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 144
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
46%
📊
CARDINALS
54%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (STL)
WHITE SOX 52% Book Odds: -106
CARDINALS 53% Book Odds: -114
Book Implied: 51.50% / 53.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 59%
Under 7.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (St. Louis)
White SoxCHW (-1.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+1.5)
St. Louis Cardinals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

35.4%

Cardinals Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.2%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CHW @ STL 1 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CHW @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 CHW @ STL 3 - 7
Jun 19, 2025 STL @ CHW 8 - 6
Jun 17, 2025 STL @ CHW 12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.826 ▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16600.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Hits (L5) +53.1% more
St. Louis: 8.7 vs Chicago: 5.7
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
St. Louis: 0.5 vs Chicago: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +24.6% more
St. Louis: 12.6 vs Chicago: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.5 3
STL Score 5.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 5.7 13.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 9.6 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 10.1 18.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.4 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → -106 / -114 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
49%TICKETS51%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHW
STL
CHW
ML
53% 85-74
49% 81-86
52% 84-77
56% 94-73
ATS
56% 89-70
59% 99-68
53% 85-76
56% 93-74
TTL
46% 68-81-10
58% 96-69-2
50% 76-75-10
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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