CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
75-73 | Road
5
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
69-78 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 11-9 | 2.53 | 1.04 | 167.0 | 173 |
| Taj Bradley | 11-6 | 3.95 | 1.26 | 159.1 | 184 |
11-9
W-L
11-6
2.53 Ldr
ERA
3.95
1.04 Ldr
WHIP
1.26
167.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
159.1
173
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 184
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
54%
TWINS
46%
GUARDIANS
55%
Book Odds: -120
TWINS
50%
Book Odds: -101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CLE @ MIN
9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
CLE @ MIN
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
CLE @ MIN
5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026
MIN @ CLE
3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026
MIN @ CLE
10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Cleveland: 0.8
vs
Minnesota: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+32.9% more
Cleveland: 9.1
vs
Minnesota: 6.1
Walks (L5)
+22.4% more
Cleveland: 3.4
vs
Minnesota: 2.6
Total Bases (L5)
+21.6% more
Cleveland: 14.7
vs
Minnesota: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.2
5
MIN Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 9.1
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 10.0
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 14.7
7.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.4
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100
→
-120 / -101
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CLE
MIN
CLE
ML
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
95-67
58%
93-68
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
55%
88-71-2
53%
80-72-9
43%
69-90-2
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