CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
69-78 | Road
0
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
92-56 | Home
20
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 6-10 | 4.43 | 1.42 | 152.1 | 120 |
| Dustin May | 6-9 | 4.69 | 1.32 | 132.1 | 127 |
6-10
W-L
6-9
4.43 Ldr
ERA
4.69
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.32
152.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
132.1
120
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 127
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
43%
BREWERS
57%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (CIN)
REDS
37%
Book Odds: +170
BREWERS
67%
Book Odds: -207
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
59%
Under 8.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
57% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CIN @ MIL
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
CIN @ MIL
9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026
CIN @ MIL
0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026
MIL @ CIN
8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026
MIL @ CIN
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.699
OPS
▲
.743
213
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+78.5% more
Milwaukee: 4.9
vs
Cincinnati: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.1% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Hits (L5)
+22.7% more
Milwaukee: 9.1
vs
Cincinnati: 7.4
Total Bases (L5)
+21.4% more
Milwaukee: 15.0
vs
Cincinnati: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.8
0
MIL Score
5.2
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.4
23.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 11.2
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 12.4
39.0 / 2.0
Walks
4.9 / 2.7
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -192
→
+170 / -207
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CIN
MIL
CIN
ML
62%
101-61
55%
88-71
52%
84-78
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-77-8
54%
83-72-5
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