PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
82-66 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
87-61 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 6-10 | 4.76 | 1.37 | 155.0 | 162 |
| Chris Sale | 14-9 | 2.10 | 1.01 | 150.0 | 184 |
6-10
W-L
14-9
4.76
ERA
Ldr 2.10
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.01
155.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
150.0
162
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 184
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
36%
BRAVES
64%
PHILLIES
40%
Book Odds: +153
BRAVES
65%
Book Odds: -186
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.80
Atlanta
5.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.80
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves
Win
64% Win Prob
A
Sim
Phillies
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+62.5% more
Atlanta: 2.5
vs
Philadelphia: 1.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
OPS (Season)
+3.3%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Philadelphia: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.5
5
ATL Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.6 / 7.0
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 8.2
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 11.6
19.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.5 / 1.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +149 / -182
→
+153 / -186
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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