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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

66-82  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

80-68  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sonny Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Sonny Gray

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Seth Lugo 6-8 5.04 1.44 159.0 119
Sonny Gray 17-4 2.69 1.16 150.2 135
6-8 W-L 17-4
5.04 ERA Ldr 2.69
1.44 WHIP Ldr 1.16
159.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 150.2
119 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 135
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
39%
📊
RED SOX
61%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (KC)
ROYALS 37% Book Odds: +169
RED SOX 67% Book Odds: -206
Book Implied: 37.20% / 67.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 44%
Under 8.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

64.6%

Red Sox Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.718 ▲
OPS
.409
170 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +31.9% more
Boston: 9.1 vs Kansas City: 6.9
Home Runs (Season) +98.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +76.5% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +30.9%
Kansas City: 71.8% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.5 3
BOS Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.3 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 6.9 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 13.0 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.6 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +169 / -206 → +169 / -206
7%TICKETS93%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
11%TICKETS89%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
KC
BOS
KC
ML
50% 80-80
55% 89-72
47% 76-87
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 72-83-5
58% 90-64-7
47% 74-83-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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