Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Blue Jays BAL @ TOR

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

72-76  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

73-75  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Chris Bassitt
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Bassitt

#40 | Starting Pitcher
@
Max Scherzer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Scherzer

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Bassitt 6-5 4.96 1.58 85.1 61
Max Scherzer 2-7 6.03 1.36 62.2 48
6-5 W-L 2-7
4.96 Ldr ERA 6.03
1.58 WHIP Ldr 1.36
85.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 62.2
61 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 48
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
43%
📊
BLUE JAYS
57%
ORIOLES 47% Book Odds: +113
BLUE JAYS 58% Book Odds: -137
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 55%
Under 8.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
OriolesBAL (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

64.6%

Blue Jays Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 TOR @ BAL 2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026 TOR @ BAL 3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026 BAL @ TOR 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 BAL @ TOR 3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026 BAL @ TOR 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Toronto TOR
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711 ▲
OPS
.692
199 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +14.0% more
Toronto: 8.8 vs Baltimore: 7.7
Home Runs (L5) +13.0% more
Toronto: 1.1 vs Baltimore: 1.0
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Strikeouts (L5) +28.1% more
Baltimore: 9.4 vs Toronto: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.5 7
TOR Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.8 / 7.7 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 9.4 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 12.4 18.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +106 / -128 → +113 / -137 ↑
30%TICKETS70%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
37%TICKETS63%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46% 74-87
53% 83-73
50% 80-80
57% 90-69
ATS
56% 90-71
61% 95-60-1
49% 79-81
57% 90-68-1
TTL
51% 80-76-5
54% 81-70-5
45% 70-85-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 43 minutes ago
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
kesq 18 hours, 4 minutes ago
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
headtopics 18 hours, 8 minutes ago
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
headtopics 18 hours, 9 minutes ago
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
yahoo 1 day ago