NEW YORK
METSNYM
68-79 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
85-62 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carlos Rodon
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 11-8 | 3.06 | 1.14 | 161.2 | 179 |
| Carlos Rodon | 5-3 | 3.09 | 1.17 | 64.0 | 70 |
11-8
W-L
5-3
3.06 Ldr
ERA
3.09
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.17
161.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
64.0
179 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
70
AI Model Win Probability
METS
44%
YANKEES
56%
METS
47%
Book Odds: +113
YANKEES
58%
Book Odds: -137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
15.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
9.2%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
NYM @ NYY
0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
NYM @ NYY
12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
NYM @ NYY
4 - 6
May 17, 2026
NYY @ NYM
6 - 7
May 16, 2026
NYY @ NYM
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.705
OPS
▲
1.041
204
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+108.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
New York: 4.3
Errors (L5)
+28.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
New York: 0.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.9%
New York: 59.4%
vs
New York: 39.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+13.7%
New York: 44.7%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.5
4
NYY Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 11.3
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 8.6
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 19.1
19.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.1
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +115 / -138
→
+113 / -137
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
NYM
NYY
NYM
ML
47%
76-85
50%
79-80
52%
85-77
48%
76-83
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-66
53%
86-76
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-72-7
51%
74-72-13
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