LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
56-91 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
68-81 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yusei Kikuchi
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 1-5 | 4.96 | 1.47 | 49.0 | 49 |
| Cade Cavalli | 12-5 | 3.12 | 1.18 | 158.2 | 185 |
1-5
W-L
12-5
4.96
ERA
Ldr 3.12
1.47
WHIP
Ldr 1.18
49.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 158.2
49
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 185
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
38%
NATIONALS
62%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (WSH)
ANGELS
43%
Book Odds: +133
NATIONALS
62%
Book Odds: -161
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
LAA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
62% Win Prob
A
Sim
Nationals
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
LAA @ WSH
5 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
LAA @ WSH
5 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
LAA @ WSH
3 - 4
Jun 29, 2025
WSH @ LAA
7 - 4
Jun 28, 2025
WSH @ LAA
2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.679
OPS
▲
.744
154
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Washington: 0.4
vs
Los Angeles: 0.0
Home Runs (Season)
+36.4% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.5% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+22.0% more
Washington: 2.4
vs
Los Angeles: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
3.8
3
WSH Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 10.3
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.1
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 16.8
8.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.0
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+133 / -161
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LAA
WSH
LAA
ML
57%
92-69
59%
96-66
54%
87-74
55%
89-73
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-65
57%
91-70
51%
82-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
83-74-5
42%
65-90-6
52%
82-75-5
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