Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Tigers COL @ DET

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

55-92  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

68-79  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Adams

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Framber Valdez
STARTING PITCHER

Framber Valdez

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Adams 0-0 3.95 1.61 13.2 17
Framber Valdez 9-10 4.17 1.36 157.2 119
0-0 W-L 9-10
3.95 Ldr ERA 4.17
1.61 WHIP Ldr 1.36
13.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 157.2
17 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 119
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
37%
📊
TIGERS
63%
ROCKIES 40% Book Odds: +153
TIGERS 65% Book Odds: -186
Book Implied: 39.50% / 65%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 TigersDET (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

64.6%

Tigers Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.20
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.20
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Win
63% Win Prob
A
Sim Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 COL @ DET 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 COL @ DET 7 - 11
Sep 11, 2026 COL @ DET 2 - 6
May 8, 2025 DET @ COL 11 - 1
May 7, 2025 DET @ COL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +16.9% more
Detroit: 4.2 vs Colorado: 3.6
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
Colorado: 0.5 vs Detroit: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +11.8% more
Colorado: 13.4 vs Detroit: 11.8
Home Runs (L5) +10.8% more
Colorado: 1.2 vs Detroit: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.5 2
DET Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.4 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.3 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 13.4 14.0 / 10.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.6 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +147 / -178 → +153 / -186 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
15%TICKETS85%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
COL
DET
COL
ML
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
54% 87-73
55% 88-73
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 97-64
57% 91-69
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 69-81-9
60% 93-62-6
46% 69-81-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 54 minutes ago
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits
si 1 day, 2 hours ago
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 14 hours ago
Phillies' Wild Card Collapse: Bullpen Blunders, Painter's Promis…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Dodgers Predicted to Re-Sign $32M Ace Tarik Skubal, Keeping Rota…
sportingnews 3 days, 8 hours ago