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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

74-74  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

82-66  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Wilber Dotel
STARTING PITCHER

Wilber Dotel

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wilber Dotel 1-4 4.41 1.32 32.2 34
Shota Imanaga 9-10 3.91 1.12 156.1 152
1-4 W-L 9-10
4.41 ERA Ldr 3.91
1.32 WHIP Ldr 1.12
32.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 156.1
34 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 152
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
42%
📊
CUBS
58%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (PIT)
PIRATES 39% Book Odds: +156
CUBS 65% Book Odds: -189
Book Implied: 39.10% / 65.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 61%
Under 8.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

63.7%

Cubs Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

9.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
58% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 PIT @ CHC 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 PIT @ CHC 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 PIT @ CHC 2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026 CHC @ PIT 7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 CHC @ PIT 11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734 ▲
OPS
.374
186 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +69.1% more
Chicago: 3.5 vs Pittsburgh: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5) +37.6% more
Chicago: 9.3 vs Pittsburgh: 6.8
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Chicago: 0.7 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.8 2
CHC Score 5.2 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 9.0 16.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 6.8 2.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 13.3 26.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.1 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110 → +156 / -189 ↑
15%TICKETS85%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58% 93-68
52% 82-77
51% 82-79
52% 85-78
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 81-82
TTL
52% 81-74-6
47% 72-81-6
46% 72-83-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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