Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs Santos Cruz Azul vs Santos

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

SANTOSSANTOS

3-1-6  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
61%
DRAW
21%
SANTOS
18%
▲ Edge: +30.50% (Santos)
73% Book Odds: -266
DRAW 18% Book Odds: +446
13% Book Odds: +677
Book Implied: 72.70% / 18.30% / 12.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 33%
Under 3.25 67%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Santos)
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-1.5) 0 SantosSantos (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

61.6% / 38.4%

Shots (On Goal)

25(8) / 11(1)

Corners

9 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Santos +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

26.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

36.9%

Santos By 1 goal

11.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 2.40
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 2.40
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cruz Azul Win
57% Win Prob
B
Sim Cruz Azul Win
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Santos (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Cruz Azul (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o3.3 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Santos 1 - 0
Mar 3, 2026 Santos vs Cruz Azul 1 - 2
Aug 16, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Santos 3 - 2
Feb 19, 2025 Santos vs Cruz Azul 0 - 1
Nov 2, 2024 Cruz Azul vs Santos 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Cruz Azul: 2.0 vs Santos: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
Cruz Azul: 7.0 vs Santos: 5.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Santos: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Santos: 7.0 vs Cruz Azul: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Santos Score 1.0 0
Cruz Azul Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 66.7% Santos Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
Santos
Cruz Azul
Santos
ML
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
ATS
44% 4-5-1
44% 4-5-1
44% 4-5-1
67% 6-3-1
TTL
44% 4-5-1
68% 6-3
50% 5-5
47% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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