PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
74-73 | Road
2
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
75-71 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hagen Smith
#32 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | 3-6 | 4.46 | 1.23 | 78.2 | 92 |
| Hagen Smith | 3-1 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 16.0 | 23 |
3-6
W-L
3-1
4.46
ERA
Ldr 0.56
1.23
WHIP
Ldr 0.94
78.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
16.0
92 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
23
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
33%
WHITE SOX
67%
▲ Edge: +13.90% (CHW)
PIRATES
51%
Book Odds: -104
WHITE SOX
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
61%
Under 7.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
B
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
PIT @ CHW
2 - 0
Sep 9, 2026
PIT @ CHW
4 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
PIT @ CHW
9 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
CHW @ PIT
7 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
CHW @ PIT
10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.734
OPS
▲
.826
186
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+58.2% more
Chicago: 4.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.6
Home Runs (L5)
+41.0% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.8% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.3% more
Chicago: 8.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
2
CHW Score
5.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 10.0
2.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.2
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 14.5
3.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
-104 / -115
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
PIT
CHW
PIT
ML
49%
81-86
52%
82-77
56%
94-73
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
99-68
54%
86-73
56%
93-74
50%
81-82
TTL
58%
96-69-2
47%
72-81-6
51%
84-81-2
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …