CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
69-77 | Road
1
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
89-57 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | 6-9 | 5.43 | 1.49 | 116.0 | 90 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 12-8 | 2.67 | 0.90 | 165.0 | 161 |
6-9
W-L
12-8
5.43
ERA
Ldr 2.67
1.49
WHIP
Ldr 0.90
116.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 165.0
90
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 161
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
27%
DODGERS
73%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (LAD)
REDS
30%
Book Odds: +239
DODGERS
73%
Book Odds: -268
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
60%
Under 8.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Dodgers
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
LAD @ CIN
8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
LAD @ CIN
2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
LAD @ CIN
4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026
LAD @ CIN
4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
CIN @ LAD
1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.699
OPS
▲
.762
213
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+27.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 3.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+20.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+6.3%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.3%
Los Angeles: 33.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.5
1
LAD Score
5.5
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 8.2
14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.6
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.3
10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 14.1
30.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.6
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +236 / -272
→
+239 / -268
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CIN
LAD
CIN
ML
56%
92-73
55%
88-71
48%
79-87
49%
79-81
ATS
59%
98-67
54%
86-73
43%
72-94
50%
80-80
TTL
48%
77-82-6
53%
81-73-5
44%
70-90-6
54%
83-72-5
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