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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

73-73  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

75-70  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Lake Bachar
STARTING PITCHER

Lake Bachar

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Davis Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Martin

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lake Bachar 1-3 3.59 1.08 77.2 80
Davis Martin 9-6 4.13 1.32 130.2 114
1-3 W-L 9-6
3.59 Ldr ERA 4.13
1.08 Ldr WHIP 1.32
77.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 130.2
80 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 114
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
47%
📊
WHITE SOX
53%
PIRATES 48% Book Odds: +109
WHITE SOX 57% Book Odds: -131
Book Implied: 47.80% / 56.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 47%
Under 9.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
PiratesPIT (+1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

64.6%

White Sox Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.0%

PIT By 3-4 runs

9.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.80
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.80
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 PIT @ CHW 2 - 0
Sep 9, 2026 PIT @ CHW 4 - 2
Sep 8, 2026 PIT @ CHW 9 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 CHW @ PIT 7 - 2
Jul 19, 2025 CHW @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.734
OPS
▲ .826
186 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +95.0% more
Chicago: 4.7 vs Pittsburgh: 2.4
Home Runs (L5) +61.0% more
Chicago: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +26.8% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Pittsburgh: 4.7
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
Chicago: 0.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.5 4
CHW Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 10.0 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 8.3 14.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 15.2 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.7 / 2.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149 → +109 / -131 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
30%TICKETS70%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
PIT
CHW
PIT
ML
49% 81-86
52% 82-77
56% 94-73
52% 85-78
ATS
59% 99-68
54% 86-73
56% 93-74
50% 81-82
TTL
58% 96-69-2
47% 72-81-6
51% 84-81-2
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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