CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
81-66 | Road
6
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
91-56 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Henderson
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 9-11 | 4.38 | 1.26 | 162.1 | 165 |
| Logan Henderson | 9-3 | 2.48 | 0.79 | 83.1 | 93 |
9-11
W-L
9-3
4.38
ERA
Ldr 2.48
1.26
WHIP
Ldr 0.79
162.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
83.1
165 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
93
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
42%
BREWERS
58%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (MIL)
CUBS
47%
Book Odds: +113
BREWERS
58%
Book Odds: -136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
60%
Under 7.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CHC By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CHC @ MIL
6 - 8
Sep 8, 2026
CHC @ MIL
3 - 4
Sep 7, 2026
CHC @ MIL
3 - 4
Sep 3, 2026
MIL @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026
MIL @ CHC
9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.374
OPS
▲
.743
0
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15400.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+464.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+36.9%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.4
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.5
6
MIL Score
5.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.6
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.0
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 12.3
18.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.8 / 4.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+113 / -136
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CHC
MIL
CHC
ML
62%
101-61
58%
93-68
52%
84-78
51%
82-79
ATS
58%
94-68
61%
97-63-1
48%
78-84
47%
75-85-1
TTL
40%
62-92-8
52%
81-74-6
50%
77-77-8
46%
72-83-6
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