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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

78-69  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

65-82  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Zac Gallen
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Gallen

#23 | Starting Pitcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zac Gallen 3-9 6.34 1.56 98.0 61
Daniel Lynch IV 4-5 3.51 1.10 66.2 46
3-9 W-L 4-5
6.34 ERA Ldr 3.51
1.56 WHIP Ldr 1.10
98.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 66.2
61 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 46
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
📊
ROYALS
60%
▲ Edge: +11.40% (KC)
DIAMONDBACKS 53% Book Odds: -114
ROYALS 49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 53.30% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Kansas City)
DiamondbacksARI (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

36.3%

Royals Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

ARI By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

9.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 ARI @ KC 2 - 5
Sep 8, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 3
Sep 7, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 4
Jul 6, 2025 KC @ ARI 4 - 0
Jul 5, 2025 KC @ ARI 1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
166
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +27.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0 vs Arizona: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +15.4% more
Kansas City: 7.8 vs Arizona: 6.8
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Hits (L5) +10.6% more
Arizona: 8.4 vs Kansas City: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.8 2
KC Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 8.4 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.8 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 12.1 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.9 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -137 → -114 / +105 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
95%TICKETS5%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ARI
KC
ARI
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
54% 86-74
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
56% 89-71
TTL
58% 90-64-7
52% 80-73-8
54% 83-70-7
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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