TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
87-58 | Road
7
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
85-61 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 6-10 | 3.82 | 1.27 | 94.1 | 101 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 4-3 | 3.64 | 1.34 | 71.2 | 66 |
6-10
W-L
4-3
3.82
ERA
Ldr 3.64
1.27 Ldr
WHIP
1.34
94.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
71.2
101 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
66
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
62%
BRAVES
38%
▲ Edge: +15% (TB)
RAYS
47%
Book Odds: +112
BRAVES
55%
Book Odds: -121
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.20
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.20
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
62% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rays
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TB @ ATL
1 - 3
Sep 9, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 1
Apr 13, 2025
ATL @ TB
3 - 8
Apr 12, 2025
ATL @ TB
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.728
OPS
▲
.757
169
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+71.1% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+49.5% more
Tampa Bay: 17.7
vs
Atlanta: 8.9
Walks (L5)
+41.9% more
Tampa Bay: 3.1
vs
Atlanta: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.2
7
ATL Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 10.0
3.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 8.3
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 17.7
7.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.1
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +161 / -198
→
+112 / -121
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 10.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TB
ATL
TB
ML
46%
77-90
58%
95-68
54%
90-78
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
96-71
60%
97-66
52%
87-81
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
83-73-11
47%
73-81-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-75-10
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