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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

56-90  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

80-67  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jake Bennett
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Bennett

#64 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Johnson 3-8 5.17 1.39 78.1 58
Jake Bennett 9-6 3.34 1.02 99.2 81
3-8 W-L 9-6
5.17 ERA Ldr 3.34
1.39 WHIP Ldr 1.02
78.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 99.2
58 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 81
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
33%
📊
RED SOX
67%
ANGELS 35% Book Odds: +183
RED SOX 69% Book Odds: -224
Book Implied: 35.30% / 69.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 49%
Under 9.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

63.7%

Red Sox Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.80
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.80
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Angels Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 4
Sep 8, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 1
Sep 7, 2026 LAA @ BOS 2 - 5
Jul 5, 2026 BOS @ LAA 7 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 BOS @ LAA 8 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.369 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.679 ▲
OPS
.409
154 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +93.0% more
Boston: 3.9 vs Los Angeles: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +18.0% more
Boston: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Home Runs (Season) +98.7% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +75.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.8 6
BOS Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 9.4 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 11.1 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 14.3 14.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149 → +183 / -224 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
14%TICKETS86%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 9 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
LAA
BOS
LAA
ML
50% 80-80
59% 96-66
47% 76-87
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-67
60% 97-65
48% 79-84
51% 82-80
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 83-74-5
47% 74-83-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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