Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Padres WSH @ SD

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

67-81  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

78-68  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Kent

#25 | Starting Pitcher
@
Walker Buehler
STARTING PITCHER

Walker Buehler

#10 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Kent 1-3 5.55 1.68 24.1 21
Walker Buehler 8-6 4.56 1.34 136.1 117
1-3 W-L 8-6
5.55 ERA Ldr 4.56
1.68 WHIP Ldr 1.34
24.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 136.1
21 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 117
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
33%
📊
PADRES
67%
▲ Edge: +2% (SD)
NATIONALS 39% Book Odds: +154
PADRES 65% Book Odds: -187
Book Implied: 39.40% / 65.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

63.7%

Padres Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
67% Win Prob
A
Sim Padres Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026 WSH @ SD 4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 3
May 31, 2026 SD @ WSH 2 - 4
May 30, 2026 SD @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.744
OPS
▲ .925
210 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +97.2% more
San Diego: 4.3 vs Washington: 2.2
Runs per Game (Season) +18.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
OPS (Season) +18.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Washington: 74.4%
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
San Diego: 0.3 vs Washington: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.8 2
SD Score 5.2 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 7.4 16.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 10.1 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 14.1 26.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.2 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -113 → +154 / -187 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
25%TICKETS75%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
60%TICKETS40%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
WSH
SD
WSH
ML
51% 85-83
57% 92-69
51% 85-82
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-68
55% 92-75
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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