ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
72-75 | Road
6
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
62-85 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andre Pallante
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Blade Tidwell
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 12-6 | 3.51 | 1.24 | 141.0 | 98 |
| Blade Tidwell | 0-2 | 4.43 | 1.24 | 42.2 | 36 |
12-6
W-L
0-2
3.51 Ldr
ERA
4.43
1.24
WHIP
1.24
141.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
42.2
98 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
36
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
41%
GIANTS
59%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (SF)
CARDINALS
55%
Book Odds: -123
GIANTS
50%
Book Odds: +102
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Giants
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
SF @ STL
6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
SF @ STL
10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
SF @ STL
1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026
STL @ SF
6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
STL @ SF
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.691
OPS
▲
.706
167
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.0% more
San Francisco: 1.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+6.6% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.2%
San Francisco: 40.0%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
San Francisco: 70.6%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.5
6
SF Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 9.1
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 7.7
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 12.9
13.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.5
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104
→
-123 / +102
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
STL
SF
STL
ML
49%
79-81
53%
85-74
53%
85-75
52%
84-77
ATS
62%
100-60
56%
89-70
52%
83-77
53%
85-76
TTL
55%
82-68-10
46%
68-81-10
46%
68-81-11
50%
76-75-10
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