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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

69-77  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

67-79  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Zebby Matthews
STARTING PITCHER

Zebby Matthews

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zebby Matthews 9-9 4.69 1.25 117.0 97
Keider Montero 9-8 3.52 1.03 143.0 96
9-9 W-L 9-8
4.69 ERA Ldr 3.52
1.25 WHIP Ldr 1.03
117.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 143.0
97 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 96
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
37%
📊
TIGERS
63%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (DET)
TWINS 51% Book Odds: -103
TIGERS 54% Book Odds: -117
Book Implied: 50.70% / 53.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Detroit)
TwinsMIN (-1.5) 0 TigersDET (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

36.3%

Tigers Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5
5.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
187 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Minnesota: 31.7%
Errors (L5) +46.0% more
Minnesota: 0.6 vs Detroit: 0.2
Walks (L5) +25.0% more
Minnesota: 3.0 vs Detroit: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5) +10.6% more
Minnesota: 8.6 vs Detroit: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.8 2
DET Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 6.6 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.6 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 11.8 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.0 8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131 → -103 / -117 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
64%TICKETS36%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
54% 86-73
52% 84-78
54% 87-73
50% 80-81
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 95-67
57% 91-69
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-10
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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