Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas @ Utah ARK @ UTAH

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 10:15 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

2-0  |  Home

43
Key Game
Gavin Rush
KEY GAME

Gavin Rush

#37 | Punter
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Gavin Rush None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
14%
📊
UTAH
86%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (UTAH)
ARKANSAS 20% Book Odds: +389
UTAH 83% Book Odds: -501
Book Implied: 20.40% / 83.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 48%
Under 55.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.6
UTAH
Book Spread
-12
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Utah)
ArkansasARK (+12) 0 UtahUTAH (-12)
Utah Utes (-12) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas Cover

8.1%

Utah Cover

91.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -19.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

ARK By 1-6 points

4.4%

ARK By 7-13 points

2.2%

UTAH By 1-6 points

8.8%

UTAH By 7-13 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 21.80
35.8
UTAH
Book Implied: 33.80
Simulated Score
26
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 21.80
36
UTAH
Book Implied: 33.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah Win
86% Win Prob
A
Sim Utah Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah (-12) Win
Proj Spread: -19.6
B
Sim Utah (-12) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ARK @ UTAH 10 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +107.4% more
Utah: 304.1 vs Arkansas: 146.6
Total Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Utah: 543.3 vs Arkansas: 388.9
First Downs (L5) +19.1% more
Utah: 27.7 vs Arkansas: 23.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Utah: 0.6 vs Arkansas: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 16.2 10
UTAH Score 35.8 43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.7 / 23.3 24.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 304.1 / 146.6 141.0 / 61.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 543.3 / 388.9 442.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +358 / -495 → +389 / -501
4%TICKETS96%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12 / -12 → +12 / -12
43%TICKETS57%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 55.5 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
UTAH Advantage
7-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 22.9 ATS +/-: +5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
UTAH Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 22.9 ATS +/-: +5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.9
UTAH
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
ARK
UTAH
ARK
ML
100% 7-0
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
TTL
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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