IOWA STATE
IOWA STATEISU
1-1 | Road
13
IOWA
IOWAIOWA
2-0 | Home
16
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ethan Gurney
#95 | Punter@
👤
KEY GAME
Boston Everitt
#49 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ethan Gurney | None-None |
| Boston Everitt | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
22%
IOWA
78%
▲ Edge: +4.10% (ISU)
IOWA STATE
18%
Book Odds: +460
IOWA
86%
Book Odds: -613
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 42.5
68%
Under 42.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.5
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
+14
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Iowa State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU +13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)
ISU By 1-6 points
8.2%
ISU By 7-13 points
5.0%
IOWA By 1-6 points
13.2%
IOWA By 7-13 points
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa State
18.5
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 14.20
Iowa
32
IOWA
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
Iowa State
28
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 14.20
Iowa
27
IOWA
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Iowa
Win
78% Win Prob
C
Sim
Iowa State
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Iowa State (+14)
Win
Proj Spread: +13.5
D
Sim
Iowa State (+14)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o42.5
Loss
Proj Total: 50.5
B
Sim
o42.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
ISU @ IOWA
13 - 16
Sep 6, 2025
IOWA @ ISU
13 - 16
Sep 7, 2024
ISU @ IOWA
20 - 19
Sep 9, 2023
IOWA @ ISU
20 - 13
Sep 10, 2022
ISU @ IOWA
10 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+32.3% more
Iowa: 224.9
vs
Iowa State: 169.9
Total Yards (L5)
+13.5% more
Iowa: 402.4
vs
Iowa State: 354.4
First Downs (L5)
+12.8% more
Iowa: 20.8
vs
Iowa State: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ISU Score
18.5
13
IOWA Score
32.0
16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.8 / 18.4
13.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards
224.9 / 169.9
93.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.33 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards
402.4 / 354.4
284.0 / 255.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +455 / -625
→
+460 / -613
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5
→
+14 / -14
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5
→
42.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
2-1-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 24.3
ATS +/-: +11.5
IOWA
Advantage
3-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 32.7
ATS +/-: +5.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
2-1-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 24.3
ATS +/-: +11.5
IOWA
2-1-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 32.7
ATS +/-: +5.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: +0.2
IOWA
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
ISU
IOWA
ISU
ML
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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