Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas Tech @ Oregon St TTU @ ORST

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

2-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:30 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
@
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Will Karoll None-None
Caleb Ojeda None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS TECH
86%
📊
OREGON ST
14%
▲ Edge: +7.70% (ORST)
TEXAS TECH 97% Book Odds: -2842
OREGON ST 7% Book Odds: +1440
Book Implied: 96.60% / 6.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +11.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 28%
Under 53.5 72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+19.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
+26
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Oregon State)
Texas TechTTU (-26) 0 Oregon StORST (+26)
Oregon State Beavers (+26) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Tech Cover

8.7%

Oregon St Cover

91.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ORST +19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

TTU By 1-6 points

9.3%

TTU By 7-13 points

16.1%

ORST By 1-6 points

4.8%

ORST By 7-13 points

2.4%

AI Model Projected Score
30.5
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 39.80
11.5
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 13.80
Simulated Score
30
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 39.80
22
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 13.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech Win
86% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Tech Win
79% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon St (+26) Win
Proj Spread: +19.0
C
Sim Oregon St (+26) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.0
B
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 TTU @ ORST 35 - 24
Sep 13, 2025 ORST @ TTU 14 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.4% more
Texas Tech: 173.5 vs Oregon State: 80.9
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
Texas Tech: 1.6 vs Oregon State: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Texas Tech: 456.8 vs Oregon State: 354.4
First Downs (L5) +19.3% more
Texas Tech: 24.3 vs Oregon State: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 30.5 35
ORST Score 11.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 24.3 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 80.9 / 173.5 69.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 354.4 / 456.8 472.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -2985 / +1230 → -2842 / +1440 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -25 / +25 → -26 / +26 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 53.5 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
ORST
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 19.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
ORST Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 19.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
ORST
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
TTU
ORST
TTU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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