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LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

1-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA)
View Odds Details →

LSU

LSULSU

2-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Lexington Matthews
KEY GAME

Lexington Matthews

#29 | Punter
@
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
Player
Lexington Matthews None-None
Grant Chadwick None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA TECH
7%
📊
LSU
93%
LOUISIANA TECH --
LSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 56.0 45%
Under 56.0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
+35
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
Louisiana TechLT (+35) 0 LSULSU (-35)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+35) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Tech Cover

97.3%

LSU Cover

2.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LT +27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

LT By 1-6 points

1.6%

LT By 7-13 points

0.6%

LSU By 1-6 points

4.2%

LSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 10.50
41
LSU
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
27
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 10.50
25
LSU
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI LSU Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisiana Tech Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana Tech (+35) Win
Proj Spread: +27.0
A
Sim Louisiana Tech (+35) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 LT @ LSU 14 - 45
Sep 6, 2025 LT @ LSU 7 - 23
Sep 22, 2018 LT @ LSU 21 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 255.9 vs LSU: 166.4
Turnovers (L5) +15.3% more
Louisiana Tech: 1.2 vs LSU: 1.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 0.6 vs LSU: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +8.4% more
Louisiana Tech: 456.3 vs LSU: 418.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 14.0 14
LSU Score 41.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 21.8 26.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 166.4 / 255.9 147.0 / -3.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 418.1 / 456.3 528.0 / 140.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.2 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +33.5 / -33.5 → +35 / -35 ↑
84%TICKETS16%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 56 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +12.0
LSU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 21.3 ATS +/-: +5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +12.0
LSU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 21.3 ATS +/-: +5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.8
LSU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
LT
LSU
LT
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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