Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern @ Houston SOU @ HOU

SOUTHERN

SOUTHERNSOU

1-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

2-0  |  Home

77
Key Game
Christopher McKenna
KEY GAME

Christopher McKenna

#34 | Place kicker
@
Jonathan Dimas
KEY GAME

Jonathan Dimas

#49 | Place kicker
Player
Christopher McKenna None-None
Jonathan Dimas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN
4%
📊
HOUSTON
96%
▲ Edge: +81.40% (HOU)
SOUTHERN 49% Book Odds: +105
HOUSTON 15% Book Odds: +561
Book Implied: 48.80% / 15.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 75%
Under 50.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.9 points (Houston)
SouthernSOU (+1.5) 0 HoustonHOU (-1.5)
Houston Cougars (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Cover

0.7%

Houston Cover

99.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -34.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

SOU By 1-6 points

0.5%

SOU By 7-13 points

0.1%

HOU By 1-6 points

1.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

4.5%

AI Model Projected Score
12.8
SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 24.50
47.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
13
SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 24.50
41
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Houston Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -34.4
A
Sim Houston (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 SOU @ HOU 6 - 77
Aug 30, 2013 SOU @ HOU 13 - 62
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +129.2% more
Houston: 25.8 vs Southern: 11.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +123.1% more
Houston: 208.3 vs Southern: 93.4
Total Yards (L5) +121.5% more
Houston: 455.0 vs Southern: 205.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Houston: 0.5 vs Southern: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 12.8 6
HOU Score 47.2 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.8 / 11.3 34.0 / 4.0
Rushing Yards 208.3 / 93.4 388.0 / -6.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 455.0 / 205.5 591.0 / 121.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.1 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → +105 / +561 ↓
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↓
92%TICKETS8%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50.5
13%TICKETS87%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
HOU Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 20.8 ATS +/-: +5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
HOU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 20.8 ATS +/-: +5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
HOU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SOU
HOU
SOU
ML
100% 6-0
50% 1-1
83% 5-1
50% 1-1
ATS
50% 3-3
100% 2-0
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
TTL
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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