Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tennessee @ Georgia Tech TENN @ GT

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

2-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA TECH

GEORGIA TECHGT

0-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
@
Alex Bacchetta
KEY GAME

Alex Bacchetta

#47 | Punter
Player
Jackson Ross None-None
Alex Bacchetta None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
38%
📊
GEORGIA TECH
62%
▲ Edge: +41% (GT)
TENNESSEE 83% Book Odds: -494
GEORGIA TECH 21% Book Odds: +385
Book Implied: 83.20% / 20.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.4 (Under)
Over 56.0 35%
Under 56.0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
+12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.5 points (Georgia Tech)
TennesseeTENN (-12.5) 0 Georgia TechGT (+12.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Cover

36.0%

Georgia Tech Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GT -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)

TENN By 1-6 points

14.2%

TENN By 7-13 points

11.3%

GT By 1-6 points

16.9%

GT By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 34.20
26.8
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 21.80
Simulated Score
32
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 34.20
33
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 21.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia Tech Loss
62% Win Prob
D
Sim Georgia Tech Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Georgia Tech (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Tennessee (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 48.6
B
Sim o56.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 TENN @ GT 45 - 24
Sep 4, 2017 TENN @ GT 42 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.9% more
Tennessee: 226.5 vs Georgia Tech: 111.2
Total Yards (L5) +29.3% more
Tennessee: 518.3 vs Georgia Tech: 366.5
First Downs (L5) +24.1% more
Tennessee: 26.3 vs Georgia Tech: 19.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Georgia Tech: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 21.8 45
GT Score 26.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 26.3 25.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 111.2 / 226.5 135.0 / 299.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 366.5 / 518.3 356.0 / 447.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -551 / +390 → -494 / +385
99%TICKETS1%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -13.5 / +13.5 → -12.5 / +12.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55 → 56 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +1.2
GT
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +1.2
GT
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +0.5
GT
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -5.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GT
TENN
GT
TENN
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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